Geojournal of Tourism and Geosites | 2026
Authors: Demirkale Ö.; Duran N.I.; Ojaghlou M.
DOI: 10.30892/gtg.65223-1728
Journal: Geojournal of Tourism and Geosites
Year: 2026
Publisher: Editura Universitatii din Oradea
Document Type: Article
Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access
Cited by: 0
Tourism now adds nearly ten trillion dollars to world GDP and sustains about 330 million jobs, yet the sector is acutely exposed to macro-financial downturns, geopolitical rifts and climate-policy shifts. Recent surges in AI-driven news sentiment, US–China frictions and decarbonisation measures have amplified uncertainty facing tourism investors. This study investigates how four uncertainty channels media-based economic policy (TVEPU), US–China tension (UCT), global macro (WUI) and climate policy (CPU) shape tourism equity returns in China and the United States. By combining linear ARDL, asymmetric NARDL and wavelet coherence, we test long-run cointegration, identify whether negative shocks hit harder than positive ones, and pinpoint the time-frequency windows where these effects emerge. Findings aim to guide frequency-sensitive risk management and transparent policy communication in tourism finance. Monthly tourism-equity indices for China and the United States (Jan 2012 – Dec 2023) are matched with four uncertainty proxies TVEPU, UCT, WUI and CPU. Long-run cointegration is tested via bounds-based ARDL; nonlinear shock asymmetries are evaluated with NARDL; and time-frequency co-movements and lead-lag patterns are mapped through continuous wavelet coherence. This three-pillar design jointly uncovers integration, asymmetry and frequency-specific transmission channels. Cointegration exists in both markets, yet risk premiums differ: China’s tourism equities react modestly to media-based uncertainty, whereas U.S. returns exhibit a strong positive long-run link with geopolitical tension. Shock asymmetry is clear negative TVEPU surprises depress Chinese stocks more than positive ones, while positive UCT surprises lift U.S. prices. Wavelet coherence reveals that in China, TVEPU drives short-term (2–8 month) inverse co-movements and CPU underpins long cycles (16–64 months); in the United States, UCT dominates the 8– 16 month band, and WUI influence fades beyond 32 months. Uncertainty premiums prove source-, country-and frequency-specific. Rapid policy disclosure and climate-finance hedges could dampen media and CPU shocks in China, while U.S. investors should diversify and employ derivatives against recurrent geopolitical cycles. Multi-band sensitivities further imply that tourism firms maintain flexible liquidity buffers and dynamic credit lines. Mapping this heterogeneous architecture advances tourism-finance scholarship and offers actionable guidance for policymakers and portfolio managers. © 2026 by the authors.
ARDL model; global uncertainty; NARDL model; tourism stocks; wavelet coherence