Determinants of interest rates and the amount of microcredits in Colombia; An analysis using vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables; [Determinantes de la tasa de interés y del monto de los microcréditos en Colombia; un análisis con vectores autorregresivos con variables exógenas]

Paper Details

Authors: Quiroz Hernández J.F.; Uribe Ortiz A.M.; González Uribe G.J.

DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2026.4627

Journal: Contaduria y Administracion

Year: 2026

Publisher: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Document Type: Article

Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access

Cited by: 0

Abstract

This study, based on a VAR-X model, analyzes the mediumand long-term relationships between microcredit amounts and their interest rates in Colombia, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, and the interbank rate, among others. The objective is to identify the directionality of the relationship between amounts and rates (unidirectional or bidirectional), as well as the impact of these variables on their evolution. The results reveal that microcredit interest rates are influenced by their own past dynamics, the GDP growth rate, and the unemployment rate. In turn, disbursed amounts respond to their own lagged values, the unemployment rate, the interbank rate, and changes in both the inflation and unemployment rates. However, the VAR-X model does not provide conclusive evidence of a causal relationship between interest rates and amounts, thus limiting statistical inferences regarding a direct dependence between the two variables. © 2019 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración. Este es un artículo Open Access bajo la licencia CC BY-NC-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/)

Keywords

econometrics; economics; financial management; microcredit; vector autoregressive model

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