Intereconomics | 2026
Authors: Gros D.
DOI: 10.2478/ie-2026-0006
Journal: Intereconomics
Year: 2026
Publisher: Sciendo
Document Type: Article
Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access
Cited by: 0
The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump’s tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump’s tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a different tariff rate for each trading partner. Discriminatory tariffs have re-routed trade, imposing efficiency losses while leaving aggregate volumes largely intact. The economic costs of such tariffs fall predominantly on the country imposing them. Europe occupies a relatively favourable position under current US tariff structures, particularly vis-à-vis China. The historical experience suggests that second-round protectionism against diverted trade would be costly and much more damaging for the global trading system. This suggests for the EU that restraint and openness remain the most effective policies. © The Author(s) 2026.