Foresight and STI Governance | 2026
Authors: Ghazinoory S.; Golkar M.H.; Saghafi F.; Nozari M.
DOI: 10.17323/fstig.2026.28328
Journal: Foresight and STI Governance
Year: 2026
Publisher: National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)
Document Type: Article
Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access
Cited by: 0
Scenario planning has often been treated as a set of techniques rather than a field shaped by distinct intellectual traditions. This paper reframes the discussion by comparatively examining two influential traditions — commonly labeled the ―English‖ Shell School and the ―French‖ La Prospective School — not merely as methods, but as historically grounded ways of thinking about the future. Drawing on historical reconstruction and discourse analysis, the study traces how each tradition has evolved, how its key concepts have stabilized, and how it approaches uncertainty, action, and strategy. The distinction between ―English‖ and ―French‖ is not simply linguistic or geographic. It reflects two different institutional contexts and epistemic orientations. The Shell School emerged within Anglo-American corporate practice, particularly in large multinational firms, where scenario planning developed as a tool for reshaping managerial mental models and enabling strategic conversation under uncertainty. By contrast, the Prospective School was formed within the French intellectual and policy environment, influenced by a rationalist tradition and public planning needs, seeking to systematize foresight through structured methods and a more universal analytical framework. The comparison shows that, despite shared emphases on participation and long-term thinking, the two schools diverge in their treatment of methodology, the role of formalization, and the relationship between knowledge and action. By moving beyond surface-level methodological comparisons and examining deeper layers such as genealogy, terminology, and epistemology, this paper provides a more nuanced understanding of scenario planning and offers a basis for integrating its fragmented theoretical foundations. © 2026 Published by the HSE University.
Comparative Analysis; Futures Studies; Prospective School; Scenario planning; Shell School