Innovation and Green Development | 2026
Authors: Ibey A.M.Y.; Abdulle A.S.; Mohamed A.A.
DOI: 10.1016/j.igd.2026.100351
Journal: Innovation and Green Development
Year: 2026
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Document Type: Article
Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access
Cited by: 0
Fisheries are vital to Somalia's economy, nutrition, and livelihoods, yet their sustainability is increasingly threatened by climate variability. This study investigates the impact of five key climate variables, rainfall, air temperature, CO2 emissions, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed, on fish production in Somalia using annual time-series data from 1975 to 2023, Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models to estimate short- and long-run relationships. The findings reveal that rainfall, CO2 emissions, and SST significantly reduce fish production in both the short and long run, while wind speed has a consistently positive effect. Air temperature is statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that climate variability is a critical determinant of marine productivity in Somalia. Policy actions should prioritize climate-resilient fisheries management, investment in coastal infrastructure, and monitoring systems that track changes in sea temperature and wind regimes. Strengthening institutional capacity and regional cooperation on blue economy adaptation is essential for safeguarding livelihoods and food security in Somalia's fragile coastal zones. © 2026 The Authors
ARDL model; Climate change; CO<sub>2</sub> emissions; Fishery output; Rainfall; Sea surface temperature; Somalia; Wind speed