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FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): A reading of the record

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review | 2010

Paper Details

Authors:

DOI: 10.20955/r.92.129-154

Journal: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review

Year: 2010

Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

Document Type: Article

Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access

Cited by: 5

Abstract

The increasingly rapid productivity growth that began in the 1990s was the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the contrast between information contained in aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence, which hinted at the productivity acceleration. The authors revisit this debate from the actual FOMC transcripts. Their study illustrates the process by which policymakers filter incoming data to identify changes in underlying fundamental trends. (JEL E52, E58) © 2010, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.