Journal of Tax Reform | 2026
Authors: Naumov I.V.; Salomatova A.A.
DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2026.12.2.253
Journal: Journal of Tax Reform
Year: 2026
Publisher: Ural Federal University
Document Type: Article
Open Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access
Cited by: 0
This paper evaluates whether place-based tax preferences granted to Russian territories with special economic status generate measurable economic effects and whether these effects differ across institutional regimes. The study uses regional panel data for Russian regions for 2013–2024 and tax expenditure data for 2019–2025. The analysis covers special economic zones, territories of advanced socio-economic development, the Arctic zone, the Free Port of Vladivostok, and technology and industrial parks. The empirical strategy combines descriptive spatial analysis with a difference-in-differen-ces framework. Treatment regions are defined as regions where residents of territories with special status received tax preferences, while control regions are regions without such preferences during the corresponding period. Fixed capital investment per capita and gross regional product per capita are used as outcome variables. The models include pre-treatment growth controls, robust standard errors and diagnostic tests. The results show that tax expenditures increased more than fivefold between 2019 and 2025, but the estimated effects are heterogeneous. The DID results do not confirm a stable positive aggregate effect on GRP per capita or investment. A statistically significant positive effect is found mainly for territories of advanced socio-economic development, while special economic zones show a negative investment effect. The findings suggest that tax preferences alone are not sufficient to ensure regional growth. Their effectiveness depends on institutional quality, infrastructure, regime design, administrative capacity, and the broader territorial context. The results contribute to the literature on place-based tax incentives by showing how similar instruments may produce different outcomes across regimes within one national institutional setting. © Naumov I.V., Salomatova A.A., 2026.
causal inference; impact evaluation; regional economic development; Russian regions; special economic zones; tax policy; tax preferences